The World Trade Organization (WTO) has placed its trust in artificial intelligence as a solution to counter the growing wave of protectionism that characterizes the current international landscape. In its recently published annual report, the WTO estimates that the implementation of new technologies could increase global trade by 34% to 37% by the year 2040. This anticipated growth would not only elevate international trade but could also boost global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 12% to 13%, thanks to the reduction of costs and the increase in productivity that artificial intelligence offers. However, the report also warns about the challenges accompanying this technological transformation, such as the potential for AI to increase inequalities between countries and productive sectors if appropriate policies are not implemented.
AI as a Catalyst for Trade in Times of Protectionism
Recently, barriers to the exchange of goods and services have increased significantly. The tariff policy adopted by the U.S. symbolizes this era of protectionism. However, WTO analysts argue that new technologies, especially AI, can act as a counterbalance. The report, titled Making trade and AI work together to the benefit of all, points out that AI offers companies new tools to improve visibility, reduce compliance costs, and better manage uncertainty in global trade.
To fully leverage these opportunities, the WTO emphasizes the urgent need to establish "open and predictable" trade policies. There has been a significant rise in restrictions on AI-related goods; regulations have increased from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024. These barriers have largely been imposed by high- and middle-income economies. According to the WTO, access to goods that facilitate AI, such as semiconductors and cloud services, remains uneven. In some low-income economies, tariffs can be as high as 45%.
Challenges and Opportunities in Global Trade
The report notes that the increasing complexity of global trade and rising tariffs have spurred demand for solutions based on artificial intelligence. Key objectives include regulatory risk analysis, conducting audits, and enhancing purchase order analysis. The WTO indicates that the implementation of AI technologies could significantly reduce trade costs, which have risen in recent years due to tariffs and disruptions in supply chains. AI tools can facilitate regulatory compliance, improve coordination between suppliers and buyers, and reduce language barriers.
However, the organization warns that the benefits of artificial intelligence may not be distributed equitably, especially if the digital divide separating low-income countries from more developed markets persists. To explore how the situation could develop, WTO economists simulated four different scenarios based on the levels of AI adoption.
Projected AI Adoption Scenarios
In the baseline scenario, where low-income economies lag behind, it is expected that wealthy countries will see a 14% increase in their incomes, compared to an 11% increase for middle-income economies and an 8% increase for low-income countries. If the digital divide can be closed, low-income countries could experience an 11% increase in their incomes, while middle- and high-income countries would reach 12%. In the most optimistic scenario, which would involve improvements in infrastructure and widespread AI adoption, low-income economies could see a GDP increase of 15%, and a 14% increase in middle-income economies.
Given this situation, the WTO recommends creating inclusive regulatory frameworks, targeted investment in infrastructure, and strengthening international cooperation. According to Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the WTO, "AI has enormous potential to reduce trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remain highly uneven."
Impact on Employment and Inequality
Artificial intelligence also raises concerns about potential disruptions in the labor market. The overall impact on employment will depend on how AI complements or replaces specific tasks, as well as the adaptability of workers and companies. If the right policies are adopted, AI could boost productivity in developing sectors, particularly in the services sector. The WTO estimates that the trend of replacing mid- and high-skilled human tasks could help reduce income inequality between specialized and non-specialized workers, with projections of a reduction of between 3% and 4% at the global level.
On the other hand, the risks of adverse effects would increase if appropriate regulatory frameworks are not implemented and knowledge dissemination is not promoted. Artificial intelligence favors capital and data-intensive production, which could leave behind economies more dependent on low-skilled labor. Moreover, a survey shows that only 41% of small businesses employ AI, compared to 60% of large corporations. In low- and lower-middle-income economies, less than a third of the firms utilize this technology.
A Call to Action for the Future of AI and Trade
According to the WTO, "the future impact of AI will depend on current decisions." With appropriate investments in digital infrastructure, worker training, internal reforms, and international cooperation, artificial intelligence can expand opportunities and strengthen the multilateral trading system. However, the WTO warns that without deliberate action to close capability gaps, update trade standards, and promote regulatory alignment, the risks associated with AI could increase and its benefits could concentrate in the hands of a few.
This is a crucial moment for global trade, and artificial intelligence can be a catalyst for positive change. To stay informed about this and other related topics, readers are invited to explore more on this blog, a space dedicated to the latest trends and analyses on trade and technology.
